1st Quarter 2015 Report : Strong Start to 2015

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The first three months of 2015 continued the solid local real estate market we experienced last year.

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Dollar volume jumped 17% from last year. An impressive $314 million plus changed hands up from $269 million last year. All of he markets were up with exception of Pebble Beach. Pebble’s decline is partially explained by a block-buster sale $16.9 million in 2014 whereas this year the top sale in the quarter was $5.6 million.

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The number of transactions mirrored the dollar volume result, up 16%, 337 closings this year as opposed to 291 last year. Five markets tallied gains and three were down.

Prices

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Median sales price figures were mixed, with five markets up and three down. Carmel-by-the-Sea, Pacific Grove and Pebble Beach had the strongest gains up 16%. 12% and 10% respectively. The losers were Greater Carmel, Carmel Valley and Seaside down 12%, 8% and 7%.

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We caution that the quarterly data bases are too small to indicate trends. They are short-term bench marks which eventually will give way to more reliable annual numbers.

Barometer 

The Market Barometer, our best indicator of short-term success, was strong on April 1. The Barometer registers the percentage of listings under contract. Our traditional dividing line between slow and good markets has been a reading of 20% of more. Only two markets came in under 20%, but just barely at 19%. Those were Greater Carmel and Carmel Valley.

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Marina and Seaside were very strong at 79% and 77%, while Pacific Grove, Monterey and Carmel-by-the-Sea posted 45%, 37% and 31% readings while Pebble Beach came in with a respectable 22%.

Normally, the second quarter is the strongest of the year. The Barometer reading indicates that the quarter will be strong, and we can reasonably expect it to be the most successful of the year.

New City Categories

Constant readers will remember from our last report that the city groupings on the MLS have been changed to reflect zip codes whereas in the past the “cities” reflected map codes established by the MLS. All of the statistical analysis available to us is organized in this way. Hence, the markets of Carmel Highlands, Carmel Valley from mid-valley in, Del Rey Oaks and Salinas Monterey Highway have disappeared, buried into 93923 and 93940.

The new markets of Carmel-by-the-Sea, 93921, Greater Carmel, 93923 and Carmel Valley, 93924 have appeared. We especially like the Carmel-by-the-Sea designation as it focuses our attention on what is happening in the incorporated village which is a distinct market from the environs.

You will see we are missing the historical Barometer data for the three new categories, but we have been able to reconstruct all of the other data. The challenge for us and our readers is to adapt to this new way of thinking. If there are properties that you find difficult to evaluate from the data published here, call either one of us, and we will be happy to tackle them with you.

Paul Brocchini and Mark Ryan are real estate agents with Coldwell Banker Del Monte Realty, Carmel-by-the-Sea office at Junipero 2SW of 5th.  They can be reached at either 831-238-1498 or 831-601-1620

The charts are based in whole or in part on data supplied by MLSListings.com,  our Multiple Listing Service (MLS).  Neither the Monterey Association of Realtors nor the MLS guarantee or is responsible for their accuracy.  Data maintained by the MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.